—— Semiconductor industry is the cornerstone of the national information industry
The semiconductor chip industry is an important driving force for China's scientific and technological independence and high-quality economic growth. It not only has a huge increase and long-term prospect, but more importantly, the chip is the basic component for the development of emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, automotive electronics, Internet of Things, big data, cloud computing and blockchain.
—— Ttensions between China and the United States, China's semiconductor industry is in urgent need of autonomy and control
The game between China and the United States has entered a new stage. Recently, the United States signed the Chip and Science Act, which added semiconductor EDA software, diamond and gallium oxide for GAAFET architecture to the commercial control list for export control, with the intention of further suppressing the development of high-end semiconductor products in China. Since the establishment of the first semiconductor physics major in 1956, China's semiconductor industry has sprouted in the dream of independence. It has gone through the initial era, witnessed the persistent exploration of the turbulent era, followed the pace of reform and opening up, and finally established a complete industrial chain system in the 21st century. To this, iresearch issued the China semiconductor IC industry research report, from the perspective of semiconductor core field-integrated circuit, analyze China semiconductor IC each industrial chain link, and based on the digital circuit and analog circuit to China semiconductor IC products opportunity insight, for IC industry trend development analysis, hope that through this report, for readers to present China semiconductor IC industry development process, industry chain business opportunities, multidimensional perspective, welcome from all walks of life to correct.
According to the international classification standards, semiconductor products can be divided into integrated circuits, discrete devices, photoelectric devices and sensors. The scope of this report is identified in the integrated circuit, namely the semiconductor IC (Integrated Circuit).
This report calculates and exports the corresponding research results through the industry senior expert interviews, desktop research, product comparative research, investment and financing data statistics and industry scale data.
"In addition to the comprehensive research on the semiconductor industry chain, links and product opportunities, iResearch Research Institute focused on four industrial issues, and gave some research and discussion in the report, casting a key to welcome all parties to discuss the development process and pace direction of China's semiconductor IC industry.”
Discussion Question 1: How does China grasp the third semiconductor industry transfer wave?
Reviewing the history of the two semiconductor industry transfers from the United States to Japan, Japan to South Korea and Taiwan, China, the emerging application opportunities brought by government policies, financial support and demand changes have had a profound impact on the division of labor in the global semiconductor industry. China is the most promising market to undertake the third semiconductor industry transfer. In the future, how the Chinese government, the capital side and the manufacturers will cooperate and strive to jointly grasp the third wave of semiconductor industry transfer is an issue that needs to be continuously discussed by all parties.
Discussion Question 2: How to view the long-term operation of China's semiconductor / chip investment boom?
The enthusiasm for investment in the primary market of semiconductor IC industry has continued to heat up since 2019. In 2021, the number of investment and financing reached a new high of 232, with a year-on-year growth of 45.9%. With the help of fund support, policy dividend and science and technology innovation board, some semiconductor IC enterprises have achieved rapid development and landed in the capital market. However, in 2022, about half of Chinese semiconductor IC enterprises broke on the first day after listing, with negative transmission to investment in the primary market. After the market capital passes the blind period and enters the prudent period, the long-term operation of semiconductor IC enterprises will test the determination and insight of investors and enterprises to go together.
Discussion Question 3: Has China's semiconductor industry structure reached the scale of coordinated development?
The semiconductor ecosystem depends on the all-round development of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, so as to realize the coordinated scale economy. The development of China's semiconductor IC industry needs to continue to pay attention to the rationality of the industrial structure and the progress of each link, focus on the development bottleneck of the industrial chain links, continue to overcome the bottleneck links, make up for the key weak links, and achieve the scale development of the industrial chain coordination.
Question 4: the impact of core shortage on China's semiconductor IC industry? Will the core shortage continue in the future?
Since 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a shortage of global fabs, and rising demand for consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, triggering a global wave of core shortage. Trade friction and the tide of core shortage break the closed supply chain of some chip products, so that Chinese chip companies that get production capacity can successfully enter the supplier list of downstream customers, and accelerate the process of domestic substitution. And the future lack of core tide trend, which areas continue to be short of core, which areas are alleviated, will have a profound impact on the development progress of Chinese chip manufacturers.
Since the opening of the science and Technology Innovation Board in June 2019, the number of enterprises in the semiconductor IC secondary market has increased significantly, especially in the IC design link. The tier 1 capital market has experienced a period of enthusiasm, and has a new round of investment and financing climax in 2021. Capital prefers the "short return cycle" link, and IC design and equipment enterprises have entered the investors' vision. Under the background of China's chip industry with high dependence on foreign countries and the chip self-sufficiency rate still needs to be improved, the state support continues to increase, and the basic, pioneering and strategic semiconductor IC industry continues to highlight. In 2021, the scale of China's integrated circuit industry will reach 1045.8 billion yuan, among which IC design is 451.9 billion yuan, IC manufacturing 317.6 billion yuan and IC sealing and testing 276.3 billion yuan.
The integrated circuit industry chain can be divided into upstream hardware and software materials and equipment layer, midstream IC design and production layer and downstream IC products and application layer. The process of semiconductor IC industry is different, and different tracks can be divided by scale and increment: semiconductor equipment, IC manufacturing and IC design are classified as rapid development track, semiconductor materials and IC sealing and testing are classified as stable development track; EDA tools and IP authorization are classified as strategic development track. Contrast head business situation at home and abroad, industry chain upstream EDA tools, materials, equipment domestic listed enterprise profitability and head international enterprises no obvious gap, technology, service (mainly for IP authorization) manufacturers gross margin and net interest rate significantly lower than the head international enterprises, industrial chain design, manufacturing, the middle link domestic enterprise profitability overall not as good as the head of international enterprises. The ecological construction of semiconductor IC industry chain still needs to be strengthened, and it will take time to achieve the scale economy of coordination between the top and the bottom.
Integrated circuit products can be divided into digital circuit and analog circuit products, and the global scale proportion is stable at around 85% and 15% respectively. Digital circuit is responsible for processing discrete digital signals, and product barriers are different from different ecology. In the future, the demand for data centers and new energy vehicles will bring considerable increment, but the technology and performance gap of domestic high-end products remains, grasping the development opportunities need to be step by step; analog circuit is responsible for processing continuous analog signals, trade friction and core shortage tide break the closed supply chain of analog circuit industry, bringing the golden window period for the development of domestic enterprises. Domestic enterprises will improve the accuracy, speed, stability as the strategy to enter the high-end product market. In addition, the semiconductor substrate materials after three stages of development, with silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) of the third generation of semiconductor emerging, among them, the third generation of semiconductor power devices with high voltage, high power, high frequency characteristics, is the most can reflect the advantages of semiconductor devices, downstream new energy vehicles, photovoltaic power generation application demand, broad market space.
On the government side, governments at all levels should introduce semiconductor IC industry according to local conditions, overall planning and long-term operation, industry landing is a systematic local action, not to pursue short-term benefits, nor only KPI; on the capital side, the capital and technology of Chinese semiconductor market is still dislocation, the acceleration of capitalization process is difficult to quickly accelerate the enterprise, the future capital investment will pay more attention to the product strength and long-term development ability of the target enterprise; on the manufacturer side, as the manufacturing process shrinks to within 10nm, Moore's Law is approaching the limit of physics, technology and cost. Semiconductor IC enterprises need to try to continue, expand (Chiplet SiP), beyond (self-assembly technology, spintronic devices, silicon photonic technology) Moore's law to obtain more development opportunities. In the future, China's semiconductor IC industry needs the efforts of the government, capital side and manufacturers to grasp the third wave of semiconductor industry transfer. In addition, iResearch judged that the lack of core tide will gradually shift from the overall shortage to new energy vehicles, industrial control, high-performance computing and other specific fields, and the high-end chip shortage will continue. With the continuous evolution of the wave of chip independence, cross-border core manufacturing has become the trend of the semiconductor IC industry, and terminal application manufacturers have entered the market one after another to jointly promote the ecological integration of the semiconductor IC industry.